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TransUnion (TRU)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 revenue was $1.037B (+9% YoY reported; +9% organic constant currency) and Adjusted EBITDA was $378M (+16% YoY), both above company guidance; GAAP diluted EPS was $0.34 and Adjusted diluted EPS was $0.97 .
  • U.S. Markets Financial Services (+21% YoY) and Insurance led growth; International delivered double-digit revenue growth with India (+17% YoY), APAC (+19%), and Latin America (+7%) .
  • Management raised capital returns and tightened targets: quarterly dividend to $0.115, new $500M share repurchase authorization, and a lower leverage ratio target (<2.5x) for 2025 .
  • 2025 outlook: revenue $4.333–$4.393B (+3.5–5% as reported; +4.5–6% organic CC), Adjusted EBITDA $1.549–$1.590B, and Adjusted EPS $3.93–$4.08; headwinds include FX (~1–2%) and higher tax rate (Adjusted ~26.5%) .
  • Narrative catalyst: launch of freemium direct-to-consumer credit education and monitoring with Credit Sesame; expected to reinvigorate Consumer Interactive while 2025 guidance remains prudently conservative amid muted credit volumes .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • U.S. Financial Services revenue +21% YoY; Insurance drove double-digit growth in Emerging Verticals; International broad-based strength, especially India, APAC, and Latin America .
  • Margin expansion: Adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 36.5% (+230 bps YoY) on revenue growth and transformation savings; Adjusted EPS up 21% YoY to $0.97 .
  • Strategic progress and product innovation: freemium direct-to-consumer launch with Credit Sesame and accelerated OneTru/OneDev modernization; “we expect to deliver 4.5 to 6 percent organic constant currency revenue growth with modest margin expansion” .

What Went Wrong

  • Consumer Interactive declined 11% YoY as the company lapped a large breach win in the prior year; management acknowledges uneven breach revenues and a transition year in 2025 as freemium launches .
  • Mortgage volumes moderated; Q4 mortgage revenue +80% YoY but inquiries rose only ~4% and were “modestly below expectations” as rates rose late in the quarter; Q1 2025 mortgage inquiries expected to decline >10% .
  • India online consumer credit volumes remained soft due to RBI tightening; management guides to ~10% India growth for 2025 with stronger trajectory exiting the year .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$1,040.8 $1,085.0 $1,036.8
GAAP Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.44 $0.35 $0.34
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.99 $1.04 $0.97
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$376.6 $393.7 $377.9
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)36.2% 36.3% 36.5%
YoY Revenue Growth (%)7.5% 12.0% 8.6%

Segment revenues trend (gross):

Segment ($USD Millions)Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
U.S. Markets – Financial Services$358.7 $367.2 $356.1
U.S. Markets – Emerging Verticals$308.5 $307.2 $302.3
U.S. Markets – Consumer Interactive$142.1 $173.7 $133.5
International – Canada$38.8 $39.4 $38.5
International – Latin America$34.5 $33.5 $33.8
International – United Kingdom$56.6 $57.8 $59.2
International – Africa$15.8 $17.1 $18.4
International – India$63.5 $68.2 $66.6
International – Asia Pacific$26.2 $25.6 $28.6

Balance sheet and leverage KPIs:

KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Cash & Cash Equivalents ($USD Millions)$543.2 $643.2 $679.5
Total Debt ($USD Millions)$5,241.0 $5,201.4 $5,147.2
Leverage Ratio (Net Debt / Adjusted EBITDA)3.3x 3.1x 3.0x

Notes:

  • Company stated Q4 exceeded revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance; Adjusted EBITDA margin improved YoY .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue (as reported)Q4 2024$1.014–$1.034B Actual $1.0368B Beat
Adjusted EBITDAQ4 2024$360–$375M Actual $377.9M Beat
Revenue (as reported)Q1 2025—$1.060–$1.074B New
Adjusted EBITDAQ1 2025—$376–$384M New
Adjusted Diluted EPSQ1 2025—$0.96–$0.99 New
Revenue (as reported)FY 2025—$4.333–$4.393B New
Adjusted EBITDAFY 2025—$1.549–$1.590B New
Adjusted Diluted EPSFY 2025—$3.93–$4.08 New
Adjusted Tax RateFY 2025—~26.5% New
Dividend per shareQ4 2024$0.105 [prior]$0.115 Raised
Share Repurchase Authorization2025—$500M authorization New
Leverage Ratio Target2025<3x [prior framework]<2.5x Lowered target

Assumptions/headwinds called out:

  • FX headwinds (~1% revenue, ~2% EBITDA in Q1; ~1% FY) and mortgage tailwind (~2 pts) embedded in 2025 guidance .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ2 2024 (Prev-2)Q3 2024 (Prev-1)Q4 2024 (Current)Trend
Technology modernization (OneTru/OneDev)OneTru driving enhancements; raised 2024 growth guidance on transformation progress Acceleration of modernization; $85M transformation savings expected in 2024 Detailed migrations (FactorTrust, SHAPE, U.S. credit, India); OneTru as global destination platform Improving execution
Consumer Interactive strategyCI down 1% YoY; large breach win expected in H2 CI +21% YoY on breach wins CI -11% YoY; freemium D2C launch with Credit Sesame; plan for sustainable mid-single-digit growth over time Repositioning; transition in 2025
Mortgage trendsMortgage a key driver Mortgage strength; raised FY growth Mortgage revenue +80% YoY; inquiries only +4%; Q1’25 inquiries expected >10% decline; pricing tailwind from third-party scores Mixed; volume muted, pricing tailwind
International – India+25% YoY +21% YoY RBI tightening; guide ~10% India FY25 with stronger H2 trajectory Moderating then reaccelerating
Capital allocation & leverage$80M voluntary prepay; refinancing $105M YTD prepay; raised 2024 revenue guidance Dividend raised; $500M buyback; leverage target <2.5x; year-end 3.0x leverage More shareholder returns
Regulatory environment——New administration; CFPB activities paused; awaiting clarity; operational discipline emphasized Uncertain, being monitored

Management Commentary

  • “TransUnion finished the year with strong revenue growth and margin expansion... U.S. Markets grew by high single-digits... International segment delivered double-digit growth led by India, Asia Pacific and Latin America.” — Chris Cartwright, CEO .
  • “We are lowering our Leverage Ratio target to under 2.5x, raising our quarterly dividend to $0.115, and announcing a new $500 million share repurchase program.” — Chris Cartwright, CEO .
  • “We expect to deliver 3.5 to 5 percent revenue growth (4.5 to 6 percent organic constant currency) [in 2025]... with modest margin expansion at the high end of our range.” — Chris Cartwright, CEO .
  • “Adjusted EBITDA margin was 36.5%, up 230 basis points and above the high end of our expectations.” — Todd Cello, CFO .
  • “We expect our adjusted tax rate to be approximately 26.5%... impacted by global tax reform including global minimum tax.” — Todd Cello, CFO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Guidance conservatism: Management continues a prudently conservative stance; high end assumes conditions similar to 2024; upside if credit volumes improve .
  • Consumer Interactive & freemium: The freemium launch is a strategic reset to monetize traffic, enhance direct and indirect channels, and support longer-term sustainable growth .
  • India outlook: RBI policy shift toward growth; rates cut; expect soft H1 and stronger H2; ~10% FY25 growth guided for India .
  • Mortgage prequalification: Shift from tri-bureau to 1–2 pulls in prequal observed; pricing pass-through of third-party scores continues; majority revenue still tri-bureau .
  • Regulatory tone: New administration pausing CFPB activities; company remains focused on operational rigor; waiting for landscape clarity .
  • Margin investments: 2025 growth investments (~$30M) in tech/product/sales/international; incremental margins will improve if credit mix normalizes toward higher-contribution products .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus data for Q4 2024 was unavailable due to provider limits; therefore we cannot quantify beat/miss versus Wall Street estimates for revenue/EPS/EBITDA.*
  • Company reported exceeding internal Q4 guidance on revenue and Adjusted EBITDA; Adjusted EPS increased 21% YoY .

*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Growth mix: Financial Services (+21% YoY) and Insurance led U.S. Markets; International remains a multi-geography growth engine (India/APAC/LatAm) .
  • Margin durability: Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 36.5% on transformation savings and revenue growth; incremental margin upside if credit volumes rebound .
  • 2025 setup: Guidance embeds FX/tax headwinds and mortgage +2 pts tailwind; conservatism creates potential beat/raise cadence if volumes improve .
  • Capital returns pivot: Dividend raised, $500M buyback authorized, leverage target lowered; expect more balanced capital allocation with natural delevering .
  • Consumer Interactive inflection: Freemium launch with Credit Sesame and planned Monevo integration target sustainable growth; 2025 is a transition year .
  • Mortgage dynamic: Pricing tailwind continues, but inquiries volatile; near-term caution (Q1 down >10%) even as medium-term refinance optionality exists .
  • Execution risk and monitoring: Regulatory uncertainty (CFPB) and India H1 softness are watch items; management’s conservative guidance and transformation progress mitigate risk .